GCR Ch 3: Evolution Theory and the Future of Humanity

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts.

The book’s chapter 3 discusses our understanding of evolution, given the long perspective.

Evolution is not unique and has occurred several times in our history. Tool-making hominoids with communication skills have evolved independently in Africa (our ancestors), Europe (the ancestors of the Neanderthal) and south-east Asia (“hobbits”).

Environmental change is the major catalyst to drive evolution. Once species have filled their niches in the wake of an environmental change, adaption of organisms is only fine-tuned.

It has also been shown that in the last 40,000 years evolution has been driving our species forward, 100 times faster than before. Why this is so, is still unclear.

Today, psychological pressures and new environmental factors decide who among us reproduce.

When considering evolution, it is easy to focus on the physical adaption of organisms, but as humans evolve, it becomes increasingly important to consider intellectual evolution. We are still struggling to understand how to measure intelligence well. IQ is only one aspect of human intelligence, and has a low degree of inheritance. We still need to figure out if and how evolution can help humankind grow smarter over time. Although, in the near future, technical progress and the singularity are likely to supersede the process of evolution when it comes to improving the human race .

So how is evolution relevant to existential risks? It all comes down to how capable we will be in adapting to a changing environment. History has given us many examples of cultures going under because of their failure to survive a new environment. For example, the medieval Norse colonists in Greenland died out as they failed to change their eating habits, in a changing climate.

But, if climate change gives us enough time, our behavioral and societal models will have time to adapt.

The Maturity of Agile Development

Recent discussions about the coexistence of the Capability Maturity Model (CMM) and agile development has prompted me to revisit my master's thesis on the subject.

Ten years ago, I was one of the first practitioners of eXtreme Programming (XP), a software development method that belongs to the agile development movement. The big stumbling block of these methods has always been how to introduce it in an organization. Mentioning the words "extreme programming" makes you fight an uphill battle from the start. Agile is definitely a better word when presenting it. But still, the adoption of agile development requires a shift in the organizational culture, which historically has been more formal.

After having participated in and coached a few pilot projects, I started to think about how to best introduce the method in a software organization. This thinking caused me to return to university to research the topic - the result was a master's thesis on the subject.

During my research, I considered the existing and accepted certification levels in the software industry and compared it with the agile way of developing software. The Capability Maturity Model (CMM) is the most widely accepted definition for measuring process and organizational maturity. It was developed by academics and industry experts and is used by the largest governmental organizations in the world. If I could find that XP was compatible with the CMM, it would be so much easier to introduce in software development organizations.

What I found went beyond compatibility between the CMM and XP - I actually found that XP is an excellent springboard for organizations that want to reach greater levels of CMM maturity! I presented my findings at the XP2003 conference and these results are still used by many organizations to convince risk-averse managers of the traits of agile development. Maturing Extreme Programming Through The CMM

It is interesting to see that today, the members of the agile community are still fighting the same battle. Scott Ambler, IBM's agile expert and evangelist, is working on an Agile Process Maturity Model (APMM), for the same reasons: to ease that adoption of agile methods in traditional software organizations.

Google Docs Templates For Product Managers

I created two new Google Docs document templates for Product Management work: a Product Requirements Document (PRD) and a Functional Specifications Document (FSD). These are two central documents in the product development lifecycle. The requirements document is used for a product's business and marketing requirements, while the specification document further details how those requirements will be implemented in the product.

I'll start to dogfood these templates right away and will make updates along the way as needed. Please let me know if you find them useful or would like to see any changes!



UN's Stagnating Initiatives Against Bioterrorism

With UN's failure to implement the strategy laid out by the former Secretary-General, who will protect humanity from one the most dangerous threats, bioterrorism

With great foresight, former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan brought the threat of bioterrorism to the UN agenda in 2006. In his recommendations for a global counter-terrorism strategy he writes: "The most important under-addressed threat relating to terrorism, and one which acutely requires new thinking on the part of the international community, is that of terrorists using a biological weapon. [...] They can [...] bring incalculable harm if put to destructive use by those who seek to develop designer diseases and pathogens. The answer to biotechnology’s dual-use dilemma will look very different [than that of nuclear weapons]. But the approach to developing it must be equally ambitious.[...] What we need now is a forum that will bring together the various stakeholders — Governments, industry, science, public health, security, the public writ large — into a common programme, built from the bottom up [...].The United Nations is well placed to coordinate and facilitate such a forum, and to bring to the table a wide range of relevant actors."

Later that same year, the United Nations adopted its Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (resolution 60/288). In regard to biological threats it calls for: "To invite the United Nations system to develop, together with Member States, a single comprehensive database on biological incidents, ensuring that it is complementary to the International Criminal Police Organization's contemplated Biocrimes Database. We also encourage the Secretary-General to update the roster of experts and laboratories, as well as the technical guidelines and procedures, available to him for the timely and efficient investigation of alleged use. In addition, we note the importance of the proposal of the Secretary-General to bring together, within the framework of the United Nations, the major biotechnology stakeholders, including industry, scientific community, civil society and governments, into a common programme aimed at ensuring that biotechnology's advances are not used for terrorist or other criminal purposes but for the public good, with due respect to the basic international norms on intellectual property rights."

With the new UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, who took office in 2007, the initiatives have unfortunately stagnated. A worrying UN fact sheet dated March 2009 outlines the implementation of the strategy so far.

Firstly, The UN Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF) does not include any entity or initiative dedicated to combating bioterror.  Ban Ki-moon also admits that "there is no such thing as a bioterrorism unit within the UN system". Other important terrorist threats, such as the IAEA for nuclear matters and OPCW for chemical weapons, all have dedicated task forces, except for bioterrorism. Instead, the UN is handing over the task to existing bodies, such as the WHO and INTERPOL. The WHO's meager page on bioterrorism is not assuring in any way. INTERPOL's bioterror landing page is even more worrying, where an "upcoming" conference planned for March 2005(!) is highlighted. The world should tremble.

Secondly, the UN implementation haphazardly bundles biological threats with other types of terrorist threats. It is important to understand that biological threats pose a new set of problems that has not been previously encountered, and that strategies for fighting chemical and nuclear threats are not efficient when combating bioterrorism. Biological agents are relatively easy and inexpensive to obtain or produce; they can be easily disseminated; and they can cause widespread panic beyond any actual physical damage.

Thirdly, where is the promised UN-moderated forum/programme set out in the strategy document?

In contrast to the UN, the US government spends over $2B a year to prevent bio-attacks.

A unilateral approach is not enough to combat bioterrorism. We need a UN-led international forum today for going forward as a civilization and preventing biological terror attacks. It is critical that global policies and action plans are put in place to deal with "the most important under-addressed threat relating to terrorism". The global community cannot afford a late and disunited arrival - we might not get a second chance to learn from our mistakes.

Follow-up posts will address why bioterrorism is becoming rapidly more dangerous and what I believe that the global community should do to counter it.

Interview with Henrik Blomgren

For years, I've unsuccessfully tried to get many friends to start blogging. One of them is Henrik Blomgren, software consultant and small business owner.

Henrik and I go way back. At the turn of the millennium, we were both leading software teams at Swedish Framfab. As the IT bubble burst, and our hopes with it, Henrik built his own software firm and his journey has now taken him all the way to Zurich, Switzerland. Below is a short interview I did with him a while back.

Me: What motivated you to jump off the corporate bandwagon and start your own business?
Henrik: Two factors, the first not being in a position to influence or change things at Framfab, the second was a number of ideas I had back then that was not possible to realize as an employee.

Me: As a business owner, you currently focus on providing services over products. Was that a conscious decision and which do you think is the smarter strategy?
Henrik: Initially, my focus (this was 2002) was on creating niched software products, but before I got started I was offered a few short-term contract offers which I accepted - primarily in order to build up some capital. After a year, the market conditions got better and there were a lot of interesting contract jobs out there so I continued, with longer contracts and better rates.

I would not call it a smarter strategy, but much less risky and a much more predictable way to earn a monthly income.

Me: After running your own company for a couple of years you moved everything to Switzerland. How come?
Henrik: Again, multiple reasons. Compared to Sweden, Switzerland is a much more business-oriented country and offers considerably lower tax rates on both personal and corporate levels. This combined with providing equal or higher quality of living was an important factor. Being centrally located in Europe was another, both for business purposes and if you like to travel around. However, being close to the Alps has turned out to be the greatest bonus, especially during the winter.

Me: You introduced me to the book the 4-Hour Workweek. Are you there yet?
Henrik: No, I work considerably less hours now, and travel more, but I'm not sure that can be accredited to Timothy Ferriss.

Me: What is important to you? Where do you see yourself and your business ten years ahead?
Henrik: I have no idea. It's going to be interesting to see how the current crisis plays out; my guess is that the next ten years will be much tougher than the previous ten. Business opportunities will be fewer and consumers will be able to spend less, especially on technology. This prediction is based on the view that credit has been cheap and easily obtainable, and consumption (both private and business) has been driven by debt to a large extent.

GCR Ch 2: Long-Term Astrophysical Processes

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts.

NGC 3603 Photo: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble CollaborationThe book begins with discussing long-term astrophysical processes with a focus on the lifespans of our planet, solar system, galaxy and the Universe. These are the least immediate, but at the same time the most difficult risks to avoid. As such, there are not much we can do about them, right now. Hopefully, if we succeed to manage the other risks we're facing now and will face in the future, we will reach a point in time where we will have to deal the timely demise of the Earth, and later, the Universe.

3.5 billion years from now, the Sun will have exhausted its storage of hydrogen and increased its temperature enough for Earth's biosphere to be unable to sustain biological life. But even before Earth's temperature reaches that level, already 1 billion years from now it will be hot enough to disqualify all complex life. 7 billion years from now, the Sun, expanding as a red giant, will engulf Earth's orbit and devour it. A long-term goal for our species must be to find another habitable planet by the time that these events play out. A rescue plan for the Earth would be if we, or a passing star system, could eject it from its orbit before the Sun swallows the planet. In such a scenario we would have to rely on Earth's internal energy source. This is actually the only human intervention that is being addressed in this chapter of the book.

Our current model of the Universe tells us that it will continue to expand indefinitely, or at least long enough for all its major bodies to die a timely death. Perhaps this is the ultimate risk, a process which neither we nor anybody else can do anything to stop. It goes without saying that the current understanding of the Universe is not complete. There are still much to be learned, and with new discoveries our model of the Universe will change as well. The smallest stars in the universe will shine the longest, but even they expire after some trillion years. Their expiry, in combination with the consumption of hydrogen gas used in star formation, sets the time for the last stars to stop shining at about 100 trillion years ahead. This number should be compared to the current age of the young Universe, which is 14 billion years.

This is the end as we know it today. Let’s see how far we can get…

Sign-Up Closes For Online Chess Match Championships

The sign-up period for the inaugural Online Chess Match Championships is now over. The list of registered players for the two divisions are:

Open Division

Player Rating
ZwaartePaard 1942
Valiantangel 1866
leomalagar 1864
Acho 1861
tseltzer 1850
jonasil 1840
Tensaigg 1759
castleden 1745
SklavinLydia (tentative) 1737
surGeonGG 1660
TonyPrice -
jumong (tentative) -

Under 1600 Division

Player Rating
offtherook 1595
ranban    1576
farbror    1561
jerichob    1530
AHappyLearner    1484
caleblaziken    1456
edwaxx    1413
KasparovsDog    1385
Avie    1021

So, the Open Division will host 10-12 players and the U1600 Division 9.

I was considering different pairing systems for setting up the single-elimination cup brackets, including adopting the system used in the tennis ATP tour. After consulting with FICS user tseltzer, I am instead opting for a Swiss-like cup system where the top seed is not meeting the bottom seed, but instead the top seed from the bottom half.

Pairings will be posted in a couple of days on the Online Chess Match Championships site.